REAL TIME OLYMPIC MEDAL TALLY TABLE

Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Michael Phelps - Can He Win 8 Gold

The Olympics is primarily a team event, however every once in a while there comes along an amazing individual story. Michael Phelps has perhaps the best individual story of this years event. He has the opportunity to win 8 gold medals at the games in China, and so far it doesn't look like anyone can stop him.

He is seeking to go one better than Mark Spitz's record of seven golds in the Munich games way back in 1972. Michael Phelps has already joined Spitz in a different record, having earned 9 gold medals in his Olympic career overall and likely to surpass this with 5 events still to go. In fact by the time you read this he may already have 10 gold medals in his possession over all his Olympic appearances.

More people seem to be interested in the other record though, can Michael Phelps win 8 gold medals in just one Olympic games. It would be a truly remarkable effort if he does, one that will surely go down in history. Phelps celebrated his latest win in the 200m freestyle with another world record time, in fact all 3 gold medals so far have been in world record time. Mark Spitz set his record of 7 gold medals with 7 world record times as well, and Phelps may indeed be able to do the same.

Many people including Mark Spitz himself have been amazed at the courage of Phelps to go into this games with such a burden on his shoulders, even racing in events where he did not have the best times and did not dominate at the last Olympic games. The 200m freestyle was such an event, with Phelps only coming third at the last Olympic games, and now setting a new world record in that event.

I think everyone, whether they are an American or not, really wants him to crack this 8 Olympic gold record and set the sporting world on fire. The Olympics may be a team event but it is a truly special experience to see one person at the peak of their career who is so dominant and performing so well.

Monday, August 11, 2008

Olympic Medal Tally - History and Statistics

It will be very interesting to see which countries win the most medals at this Olympic games in China. It is the U.S.A and China who have been at the top of the table in recent games, and with the event taking place on China's home soil they may just have an advantage this year. At the last Olympic games in Athens 2004, a total of 929 medals were awarded to team members from 75 different countries, what is interesting is how these medals were distributed both in those Olympics and throughout Olympic history.

In Athens over half of these 929 medals were distributed among the top 8 countries in the tally, producing a really concentrated effect on the tally table. The Olympic medal tally has always been concentrated to a degree with the United States being by far the biggest medal winners over the years. Throughout Olympic history, the United States team has won almost 2200 medals with 900 of them being gold. This is a really impressive effort when you see that this number more than doubles the closest competition in both the gold and overall categories.

However this is slowly changing as other successful sporting nations are rising to the challenge. Since the first Olympiad in 1896 both the number of medals and the number of different countries winning medals has been slowly increasing. What is really interesting when trying to predict the outcome of this years Olympics is when we factor in the home team advantage into the equation. A study after the Sydney games in 2000 showed that of the 17 countries who had hosted the Olympic games up until that point, 14 of them had won their greatest percentage of medals at the games that they hosted.

This home advantage if looked at through the lens of history should mean that China will do very well at these Olympic games, whether they can beat the United States will only be seen in time. Although there is a random factor to the data, it shows that the home team does on average have more medals and a greater mix of medals at the Olympic games that they host. The Olympic medal tally should reflect this and with China both hosting the games and rising in sporting prowess, it should make for a very interesting Olympic tally in 2008.
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